I research how the human brain manages boundaries between the real and the imagined.
People often have simplistic explanations for what they perceive. Then, beliefs emerge as a socio-cognitive process of making sense from socially acceptable versions that meld with original perceptions, biases, and beliefs.
Particularly interesting is how confidence in specific claims are mediated and revised through social and cognitive processes.
“False confidence” can be treated quantitatively as the difference between perceived and objective information. The chart above goes one step further to treat each as a probability of non-randomness.
While there may or may not be objective information available, individual confidence is always open to change, especially as individuals participate in groups that tend to converge on specific beliefs. In this way, boundary management is best viewed as a complex system, described below.
A Brief Introduction to Complexity
A brief introduction – Reed 2019 
Human-centric complex systems are often best modeled as interconnected nodes in the form of networks, where each vertex represents a person or resource at a single point in time. These are dynamical systems by virtue of varying initial conditions, non-linear processes, individual learning, and interaction among agents. Consequently, these systems operate far from equilibrium, co-evolve in their eco-systems, and display emergent outcomes.
